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David Guttery

Staying the Course

Tempted to Make Big Changes in Response to Short-Term Volatility?

Read this First!

Staying the course amid economic turmoil can be a daunting proposition. As markets ebb and flow in response to world events as well as earnings reports and data releases from the Federal Reserve, it can be tempting to divert course away from your long-term objectives and financial planning goals.

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The Impact of Inflation on Consumption

What Is GDP?  

At a high level, let’s first observe that gross domestic product (GDP) is 70%  consumption. Said another way, consumption is simply you and I buying things. These things can be daily routine staples, a new car, or a household appliance, as well as any services and other non-tangible items. Clearly, in order to consume you must have income, or otherwise have the capacity to spend. Fundamentally, inflation erodes that capacity through rising prices that increase faster than your income.

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End of 2021 Planning Observations

We are furthermore witnessing one of the most visceral supply chain disruptions in economic history – if there was ever a time for a passive, hands-off approach to financial planning or portfolio management, this is certainly not it.  

Uncertain Times Underscore the Importance of Retirement  Planning and Having a Sound Financial Plan  

While the development of a financial roadmap will not negate these concerns, it can  help by addressing the question of “What happens if?” What happens if I want to retire early?

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What Does a Financial Plan Look Like?

For anyone who has not worked with a Financial Advisor, this question has likely crossed their mind at least once. According to Statista,* 65% of Americans in 2020 indicated that they do not work with a Financial Advisor.

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Is Economic Volatility Imminent?

Updated October 1st, 2021

I believe that we are at a point of inflection where risks of various types are weighing on the market as we remain relatively near all-time record high levels.

What Are the Main Areas of Risk for the Financial Markets?

Broadly, I would suggest that the three main areas of risk that are of concern today. The following areas of risk will be covered in detail below:

geopolitical risk

economic risk

political risk  

Geopolitical Risks: 

China’s Trade Tensions

China remains to be a relevant geopolitical concern.  Neither the U.S.

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Is The Economic Cycle Shifting?

Is The Economic Cycle Shifting?

I believe that the most pressing concern on the minds of my clients at the present time is inflation, and the evidence that is beginning to suggest a slowing of economic activity. On Wednesday of last week, Brandon and I had the opportunity to meet Brian Wesbury, the chief economist at First Trust, while attending a half-day seminar here in Birmingham.

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Economic Update: Is Stagflation Back?

As you know, we have been discussing the potential for economic softness since the beginning of the year.  Recently, we’ve reviewed many individual metrics that are beginning to show a correlation that reflects the weakness that we anticipated, and I believe this affirms the decisions that we made months ago to significantly reallocate our model portfolios.

Now, you’re beginning to hear the main stream mass media talking about inflation that can no longer be ignored, including rising prices for gasoline, and materials. 

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Potential Evidence of Economic Deceleration

We constantly monitor changes in many economic metrics so that we might better understand trends, and this improves our ability to manage investment portfolios to the objectives of our clients.  While today’s commentary will be very high level in nature, I would like to encourage everyone to visit my website where I have posted a 28-minute podcast within which I have offered a much deeper discussion.

Seasons Change…

Think of economic cycle changes as the changing of seasons. 

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INSTRUCTIONS to Access 2020 Tax Documents in Wealthscape


Wealthscape-1099-Instructions Download




“What if I don’t have a login?” CLICK> “Register” 

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Thrive, Not Just Survive in Changing Economic Seasons

Seasons Change

In our last two monthly editorials, we offered a high-level discussion about how economic variables might change under the new federal administration. Among other things, we discussed how a weaker dollar might characterize the coming economic environment, and how it also might create opportunities for investors going forward.  Understanding this is crucial as you look at your own financial stability and engage in portfolio management.  

Weakening Currency  

Newly appointed treasury secretary Janet Yellen has spoken on many occasions in recent weeks about the need for increasingly greater amounts of stimulus. On Monday,  Feb.

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