It feels like we’ve ridden a roller coaster of sentiment over just the last few weeks since Chairman Powell hinted that accommodation could be in our near-term future.

Within our current video, we continue to address areas of distortion that continue that skew perception from reality. This distortion can hide positive evidence of changing economic seasons. Therefore, from a tactical perspective, we remain dedicated to the goal of insulating ourselves from the sensationalism and hyperbole of the day, as we dispassionately adjust the exposures within our models, and act upon data driven conviction.

Bond yields may have peaked in October of 2023. The Federal Reserve may be on the cusp of accommodation. Inflation, as measured by the CPI, recorded a year over year increase of 2.9% on the 15th of August. The yield curve inversion we’ve heard so much about, had all but dissipated as of the 5th of August.

According to the Labor Department, personal income has outpaced inflation for nearly one year. The capacity to consume has improved over the last 22 months, and we believe this is supporting trends that have been gaining traction since December of last year. For a third consecutive quarter, we learned that retail sales were surprisingly higher than expected on the 14th of August. It seems that we may be returning to normal patterns of consumption, and because this represents 70% of GDP, it is tactically important to look through the distortion, and observe the improving financial metrics of the average household.

Please find a few minutes to view our monthly commentary, and please let us know if we can be of service.

It feels like we’ve ridden a roller coaster of sentiment over just the last few weeks since Chairman Powell hinted that accommodation could be in our near-term future.

Within our current video, we continue to address areas of distortion that continue that skew perception from reality. This distortion can hide positive evidence of changing economic seasons. Therefore, from a tactical perspective, we remain dedicated to the goal of insulating ourselves from the sensationalism and hyperbole of the day, as we dispassionately adjust the exposures within our models, and act upon data driven conviction.

Bond yields may have peaked in October of 2023. The Federal Reserve may be on the cusp of accommodation. Inflation, as measured by the CPI, recorded a year over year increase of 2.9% on the 15th of August. The yield curve inversion we’ve heard so much about, had all but dissipated as of the 5th of August.

According to the Labor Department, personal income has outpaced inflation for nearly one year. The capacity to consume has improved over the last 22 months, and we believe this is supporting trends that have been gaining traction since December of last year. For a third consecutive quarter, we learned that retail sales were surprisingly higher than expected on the 14th of August. It seems that we may be returning to normal patterns of consumption, and because this represents 70% of GDP, it is tactically important to look through the distortion, and observe the improving financial metrics of the average household.