Turn on the news on any given day and you are likely to hear about tariffs, geopolitical conflict, elections, or economic uncertainty. These headlines are designed to capture attention, and they often succeed. Feeling uneasy during periods like this is natural. However, when it comes to long-term financial decision-making, reacting to headlines has historically been one of the least reliable approaches.
From a planning perspective, uncertainty is not new. Financial markets have always operated against a backdrop of political change, global conflict, trade disputes, inflation, and shifting interest-rate policy. While each period of uncertainty feels unique in the moment, history suggests that uncertainty itself is a constant feature of markets rather than an exception. While past performance is not indicative of future results, historical data provides important context for how markets have functioned during challenging periods.
Research from Morningstar and First Trust shows that U.S. equity markets have historically recovered from bear markets in an average of just under two years, despite wide variation in causes and severity (Morningstar; First Trust). These recoveries were not guaranteed, predictable, or linear, but they occurred across wars, recessions, financial crises, and public-health events. This does not suggest future markets will behave the same way, but it highlights that volatility has been a recurring condition rather than an anomaly.
Investor behavior often plays a larger role in outcomes than the events themselves. According to JPMorgan Asset Management, investors who attempt to time the market around periods of heightened uncertainty have historically underperformed those who remained invested, particularly when strong market days were missed (JPMorgan Asset Management). Missing only a small number of the market’s best days has historically had an outsized impact on long-term returns.
Behavioral finance research reinforces this point. DALBAR’s annual Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behavior has consistently shown that individual investors have historically earned lower returns than broad market benchmarks, largely due to emotionally driven decisions such as selling during downturns or waiting to reinvest until conditions feel more certain (DALBAR). While these studies do not predict future behavior, they illustrate how emotional reactions to uncertainty have often worked against investors’ long-term objectives.
This is where financial planning becomes critical. A well-constructed plan does not rely on predicting elections, trade policy, or geopolitical outcomes. Instead, it assumes uncertainty will exist and is designed to function across a wide range of potential scenarios. Diversification, appropriate asset allocation, alignment with time horizons, and risk management are intended to introduce discipline into an environment where emotions can otherwise dominate decision-making. There are no guarantees, but planning helps reduce the likelihood of reactive decisions.
Another important distinction is control. Investors cannot control global events or news cycles, but they can control how their strategy is structured and how they respond to volatility. Shifting focus away from headlines and toward goals, cash-flow needs, and long-term priorities often leads to more consistent decision-making over time.
Headlines will always feel urgent. Financial plans are built to endure. While uncertainty cannot be eliminated, thoughtful planning can help place it in perspective and support decisions that remain aligned with long-term objectives.
Representatives offer products and services using the following business names: Keystone Financial Group– insurance and financial services | Ameritas Investment Company, LLC (AIC), Member FINRA/SIPC – securities and investments | Ameritas Advisory Services, LLC (AAS) – investment advisory services. AIC and AAS are not affiliated with Keystone Financial Group. Information is gathered from sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Data provided is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation to purchase or sell any investment product. The information provided is not intended to be a substitute for specific individualized tax planning or legal advice. We suggest that you consult with a qualified tax or legal professional.
